VO2max prediction based on submaximal cardiorespiratory relationships and body composition in male runners and cyclists: a population study

  1. Szczepan Wiecha
  2. Przemysław Seweryn Kasiak
  3. Piotr Szwed
  4. Tomasz Kowalski
  5. Igor Cieśliński
  6. Marek Postuła
  7. Andrzej Klusiewicz

  • Curated by eLife

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    eLife assessment

    The authors have established new formulas to predict maximum oxygen uptake for cyclists and runners based on submaximal exercise testing and anthropometric characteristics. This is an important study with a large and comprehensive dataset, which may be helpful for many exercise labs. The work is convincing, using appropriate and validated methodology in line with the current state-of-the-art, as shown by references to common exercise books.

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Abstract

Oxygen uptake (VO 2 ) is one of the most important measures of fitness and critical vital sign. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is a valuable method of assessing fitness in sport and clinical settings. There is a lack of large studies on athletic populations to predict VO 2max using somatic or submaximal CPET variables. Thus, this study aimed to: (1) derive prediction models for maximal VO 2 (VO 2max ) based on submaximal exercise variables at anaerobic threshold (AT) or respiratory compensation point (RCP) or only somatic and (2) internally validate provided equations.

Methods:

Four thousand four hundred twenty-four male endurance athletes (EA) underwent maximal symptom-limited CPET on a treadmill (n=3330) or cycle ergometer (n=1094). The cohort was randomly divided between: variables selection (n runners = 1998; n cyclist = 656), model building (n runners = 666; n cyclist = 219), and validation (n runners = 666; n cyclist = 219). Random forest was used to select the most significant variables. Models were derived and internally validated with multiple linear regression.

Results:

Runners were 36.24±8.45 years; BMI = 23.94 ± 2.43 kg·m −2 ; VO 2max =53.81±6.67 mL·min −1 ·kg −1 . Cyclists were 37.33±9.13 years; BMI = 24.34 ± 2.63 kg·m −2 ; VO 2max =51.74±7.99 mL·min −1 ·kg −1 . VO 2 at AT and RCP were the most contributing variables to exercise equations. Body mass and body fat had the highest impact on the somatic equation. Model performance for VO 2max based on variables at AT was R 2 =0.81, at RCP was R 2 =0.91, at AT and RCP was R 2 =0.91 and for somatic-only was R 2 =0.43.

Conclusions:

Derived prediction models were highly accurate and fairly replicable. Formulae allow for precise estimation of VO 2max based on submaximal exercise performance or somatic variables. Presented models are applicable for sport and clinical settling. They are a valuable supplementary method for fitness practitioners to adjust individualised training recommendations.

Funding:

No external funding was received for this work.

Article activity feed

  1. Version published to 10.7554/elife.86291 on eLife
  2. eLife

    Author Response

    Reviewer #1 (Public Review):

    VO2max is one of the most important gross criteria of peak performance ability and a plethora of studies focused on VO2max prediction. This manuscript provides huge and comprehensive data from male runners and male cyclists. The endurance-trained athletes performed cardiopulmonary exercise testing on a treadmill (n= 3330) or cycle ergometer (n=1094). In contrast to former studies, the authors used machine learning for algorithms and VO2max prediction. Models were derived and internally validated with multiple linear regression. The present study substantially expands current research.

    Sadly, the manuscript has an important and relevant main shortcoming as the limitations of the study had not been addressed properly:

    • The authors paid no attention to the fact that their results are strongly influenced by the exercise protocol used. It is obvious e.g. that maximal performance attainable in protocols with 2-minute exercise steps will be higher compared to an identical protocol with 3- or 4-minute steps.
    • The exercise intensity was kept constant for only 2 minutes before the workload was increased (by 1km/h treadmill or by 20-30 W cycle ergometer). Due to the kinetics of lactate, VO2, etc., it is evident that the short 2-min intervals aggravate the correct determination of aerobic and anaerobic threshold. It is well-known that longer-lasting constant exercise steps (e.g. 4 minutes) are better when the focus is centered on threshold determinations.

    The quality of this manuscript will be substantially improved when the authors could implement a comprehensive and blunt paragraph showing the limitations of their study.

    We have completed our manuscript by indicating its limits as recommended. It is reasonable to suspect that the type of protocol used matters in the cardiorespiratory indices obtained. Interestingly, according to available studies, this effect is more pronounced for the determination of cyclists' threshold power output or runners' treadmill running speed than for threshold and maximum cardiorespiratory indices such as VO2max or Hrmax (Silva et al. 2021; Weston et al. 2002; Vucetić et al. 2014).

    In the regression models presented, the main explanatory variables with the largest effect on the prediction value are the AT/RCP threshold VO2 values (rVO2RCP; rVO2AT). The coefficients for the other explanatory variables are relatively low and differences in their values due to the use of potentially different protocols appear to be marginal. Nevertheless, we see the possibility of worsening the prediction when using less suitable testing protocols for athletes such as ramp tests or typically clinical tests such as the Bruce test.

  3. eLife

    eLife assessment

    The authors have established new formulas to predict maximum oxygen uptake for cyclists and runners based on submaximal exercise testing and anthropometric characteristics. This is an important study with a large and comprehensive dataset, which may be helpful for many exercise labs. The work is convincing, using appropriate and validated methodology in line with the current state-of-the-art, as shown by references to common exercise books.

  4. eLife

    Reviewer #1 (Public Review):

    VO2max is one of the most important gross criteria of peak performance ability and a plethora of studies focused on VO2max prediction. This manuscript provides huge and comprehensive data from male runners and male cyclists. The endurance-trained athletes performed cardiopulmonary exercise testing on a treadmill (n= 3330) or cycle ergometer (n=1094). In contrast to former studies, the authors used machine learning for algorithms and VO2max prediction. Models were derived and internally validated with multiple linear regression. The present study substantially expands current research.

    Sadly, the manuscript has an important and relevant main shortcoming as the limitations of the study had not been addressed properly:
    - The authors paid no attention to the fact that their results are strongly influenced by the exercise protocol used. It is obvious e.g. that maximal performance attainable in protocols with 2-minute exercise steps will be higher compared to an identical protocol with 3- or 4-minute steps.
    - The exercise intensity was kept constant for only 2 minutes before the workload was increased (by 1km/h treadmill or by 20-30 W cycle ergometer). Due to the kinetics of lactate, VO2, etc., it is evident that the short 2-min intervals aggravate the correct determination of aerobic and anaerobic threshold. It is well-known that longer-lasting constant exercise steps (e.g. 4 minutes) are better when the focus is centered on threshold determinations.

    The quality of this manuscript will be substantially improved when the authors could implement a comprehensive and blunt paragraph showing the limitations of their study.

  5. Version published to 10.1101/2023.02.03.527004v1 on bioRxiv