Omicron (BA.1) SARS-CoV-2 variant is associated with reduced risk of hospitalization and length of stay compared with Delta (B.1.617.2)

This article has been Reviewed by the following groups

Read the full article See related articles

Abstract

Introduction

Early reports showed that Omicron (BA.1) SARS-CoV-2 could be less severe. However, the magnitude of risk reduction of hospitalization and mortality of Omicron (BA.1) infections compared with Delta (B.1.617.2) is not yet clear. This study compares the risk of severe disease among patients infected with the Omicron (BA.1) variant with patients infected with Delta (B.1.617.2) variant in Portugal.

Methods

We conducted a cohort study in individuals diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection between 1 st and 29 th December 2021. Cases were individuals with a positive PCR test notified to the national surveillance system. SARS-CoV-2 variants were classified first by whole genomic sequencing (WGS) and, if this information was unavailable, by detecting the S gene target failure. We considered a hospitalization for all the patients admitted within the 14 days after the SARS-CoV-2 infection; after that period, they were censored.

The comparison of the risk of hospitalization between Omicron (BA.1) and Delta (B.1.617.2) VOC was estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model. The mean length of stay was compared using linear regression, and the risk of death between Omicron and Delta patients was estimated with a penalized logistic regression. All models were adjusted for sex, age, previous infection, and vaccination status.

Results

We included 15 978 participants aged 16 or more years old, 9 397 infected by Delta (B.1.617.2) and 6 581 infected with Omicron (BA.1). Within the Delta (B.1.617.2) group, 148 (1.6%) were hospitalized, and 16 (0.2%) were with the Omicron (BA.1). A total of 26 deaths were reported, all in participants with Delta (B.1.617.2) infection. Adjusted HR for hospitalization for the Omicron (BA.1) variant compared with Delta (B.1.617.2) was 0.25 (95%CI 0.15 to 0.43). The length of stay in hospital for Omicron (BA.1) patients was significantly shorter than for Delta (confounding-adjusted difference -4.0 days (95%CI -7.2 to -0.8). The odds of death were 0.14 (95% CI 0.0011 to 1.12), representing a reduction in the risk of death of 86% when infected with Omicron (BA.1) compared with Delta (B.1.617.2).

Conclusion

Omicron (BA.1) was associated with a 75% risk reduction of hospitalization compared with Delta (B.1.617.2) and reduced length of hospital stay.

Article activity feed

  1. This Zenodo record is a permanently preserved version of a PREreview. You can view the complete PREreview at https://prereview.org/reviews/6098001.

    Main Claim & Relevance:

    In this preprint, the authors conducted a cohort study of individuals diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection. They found that infection with the Omicron variant was associated with a 75% risk reduction of hospitalization, an 86% risk reduction of death, and a 4 day reduction in the length of hospital stays compared to infection with the Delta variant.

     

    Are the findings strong, reliable, potentially informative, not informative, or misleading?

    The findings of this study are reliable. The inclusion of 15,978 individuals adjusted for sex, age, previous infection, and vaccination status allows for a strongly powered and representative analysis of the course of SARS-CoV-2 infection. These findings could have been further improved by correcting for additional characteristics of the participants such as socioeconomic status, which can be an important factor in patient health outcomes.

     

    How might these ideas presented by the main claims further knowledge of the COVID-19 Pandemic?

    There has been an abundant amount of speculation and media attention directed towards Omicron and how it compares to previous variants of concern. The findings of this preprint may be useful in deciding the best course of care to provide to a patient, and contribute to the overall body of knowledge regarding the current SARS-CoV-2 variants.

     

  2. SciScore for 10.1101/2022.01.20.22269406: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    EthicsIRB: The research on genomic epidemiology of SARS-COV-2 received the clearance of the Ethics Committee of INSA on March 30, 2021.
    Sex as a biological variableWhere h(t|X) is the hazard at the time t of the outcome hospitalization conditional on covariates X (Omicron, age group, sex, previous infection and vaccine status), h0(t) is the baseline hazard for the outcome, exp (β1 Omicron) the hazard ratio for the outcome being infected with Omicron variant compared with Delta, exp (β2 age group) are the hazard ratios for the outcome being 80 years or older, 65 years old to 80 compared with being 16 to 65 years old, exp (β3 sex) the hazard ratio for the outcome being a female compared with being male, exp (β4 previous infection) is the hazard ratio for the outcome of primary infection compared with having a previous infection, exp (β5 vaccination status) is the hazard ratio for the outcome having incomplete, complete, or complete plus booster compared with unvaccinated, ε is the error term.
    RandomizationSecondly, we use Whole-Genome Sequencing (WGS) data provided by the National Health Institute (INSA) that routinely performs sequencing on random samples notified to SINAVE.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    We used information from a nationwide network group of laboratories (UNILABS, ABC and CVP) that performs RT-PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 using Thermofisher TaqPath assay, targeting three regions of the SARS-CoV-2 genome: ORF1ab, N and S genes.
    Thermofisher TaqPath
    suggested: None
    Secondly, we use Whole-Genome Sequencing (WGS) data provided by the National Health Institute (INSA) that routinely performs sequencing on random samples notified to SINAVE.
    WGS
    suggested: None
    We used a nearest-neighbor algorithm with the “Matchit”(23) CRAN package.
    CRAN
    suggested: (CRAN, RRID:SCR_003005)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).


    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    Our study also had limitations; we did not have access to previous comorbidities, which could be an unaccounted confounder. Also, the study participants with Omicron and Delta had baseline differences that could influence the risk of hospitalization; although this was accounted for in the adjusted models, residual confounding could still be present. The adjusted risk increased the HR by 66%, hence the protection effect of omicron could be partially explained by age, sex, previous infection, and vaccination status. Finally, we did not account for correcting hazard ratio estimates in unvaccinated individuals for under ascertainment of past infection status; that method was shown in the English study to decrease the risk reduction. Hence, we could be overestimating the risk reduction.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.


    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.


    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.


    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.


    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.