Declining Trend in the Initial SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load During the Pandemic: Preliminary Observations from Detroit, Michigan

  1. Said El Zein
  2. Nivine El-Hor
  3. Omar Chehab
  4. Samer Alkassis
  5. Tushar Mishra
  6. Vichar Trivedi
  7. Hossein Salimnia
  8. Pranatharthi Chandrasekar

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Abstract

We report a downward trend in the initial SARS-CoV-2 viral load in nasopharyngeal swab samples of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Detroit, Michigan, coinciding with a decrease in the number of deaths during April-June 2020. A gradual decrease in the initial viral load reflected the downward progression of the pandemic.

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  3. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.11.16.20231597: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board StatementIRB: The Institutional Review Board reviewed the study protocol and ethical approval for the conduction of this study was granted under a waiver of informed consent (IRB No. RR19393).
    Consent: The Institutional Review Board reviewed the study protocol and ethical approval for the conduction of this study was granted under a waiver of informed consent (IRB No. RR19393).
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    This preliminary observational study has few limitations. First, the study does not include data about patient demographics, course of illness, duration of illness and comorbidities, which limit our ability to directly correlate higher viral loads with increased mortality. Currently, we are analyzing all variables and their impact. Second, we reported all-cause mortality and not deaths directly attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection. An upward trend in the initial Ct values (decreasing VL) of SARS-CoV-2 infected patients corresponded to a gradual attenuation of the severity of the pandemic. Positive behavioral modification such as social distancing and wider acceptance of facemask use may have contributed to a lower inoculum exposure, and hence a low initial viral load among the newly infected patients. Trends in the cycle threshold values over time may serve as a useful marker to assess the progress of the pandemic and may have an impact on public health measures, infection control and clinical management of infected patients.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  4. Version published to 10.1101/2020.11.16.20231597v1 on medRxiv