Forecast of the COVID-19 outbreak and effects of self-restraint in going out in Tokyo, Japan

  1. Junko Kurita
  2. Tamie Sugawara
  3. Yasushi Ohkusa

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Abstract

Background

The number of patients of COVID-19 in Tokyo has been increasing gradually through the end of March, 2020.

Object

Support for policymaking requires forecasting of the entire course and outcome of the outbreak if a self-restraint in going out is not initiated. Moreover, the effects of a self-restraint in going out must be considered when choosing to initiate one. Method: Data of Tokyo patients with symptoms during January 14 – March 28, 2020 were used to formulate a susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) model using three age classes and to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0 ). Based on the estimated R 0 , We inferred outbreak outcomes and medical burden if a self-restraint in going out were not enacted. Then we estimate the self-restraint in going out effects.

Results

Results suggest R 0 as 2.86, with a 95% confidence interval of [2.73, 2.97]. Exhaustion of medical resources can be expected to occur on April 26 if no self-restraint in going out occurs. If a self-restraint in going out were enacted from April 6, and if more than 60% of trips outside the home were restricted voluntarily, then medical care service could be maintained.

Discussion and Conclusion

The estimated R 0 was similar to that found from other studies conducted in China and Japan. Results demonstrate that a self-restraint in going out with reasonable cooperation of residents is required to maintain medical care.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.02.20051490: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.02.20051490v3 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.02.20051490v2 on medRxiv
  4. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.02.20051490v1 on medRxiv