Disentangling pandemic from George Floyd’s murder as the cause of the 2020 increase in violence

Background:There is considerable debate about whether the unprecedented rise in violence experienced across the United States in 2020 was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic or George Floyd’s murder by Minneapolis police. This study aimed to add clarity by analysing violent crime data in Minneapolis.Methods:Interrupted time series on daily occurrences/counts of homicide, aggravated assault, domestic assault, sex offenses, detected gunfire, and 911 calls from 2019-2021 in Minneapolis. Models included logistic and quasi-Poisson regressions, adjusting for weekend, holidays, and maximum daily temperature. Results: Reported violent events did not increase during the pandemic, while incidence of sex offenses decreased 18% (95%CI: 0.71-0.93) and 911 calls by 3% (95%CI: 0.96-0.98). After Floyd’s murder, homicide increased 137% (95%CI: 1.10-5.11), aggravated assaults by 43% (95%CI: 1.23-1.66), sex offenses by 35% (95%CI: 1.05-1.74), and gunfire by 108% (95%CI: 1.81-2.40), while 911 calls decreased 5% (95%CI: 0.92-0.97).Conclusions: Floyd’s murder better explains the 2020 rise in violence. The immediate rise in gunfire after Floyd’s murder suggests a change in the willingness to use firearms already in possession rather than a sudden influx of them, while the drop in 911 calls aligns with the theory that the causative mechanism was community members disengaging from police to address crime and resolved disputes.