From the COVID-19 Pandemic to the Mental Health of the Philippines: Modelling the Cascade of Disasters using an Influence Diagram

The COVID-19 pandemic had not only physical, but also mental effects due to the anxiety of being infected, necessity of community quarantine, and the big shift in lifestyle over the course of the pandemic. In this study, a Bayesian network was constructed and informed using the responses of 1,605 Filipinos to a survey conducted online during August - September 2021. The main objective of this study is to identify the critical factors that caused the cascade of disasters from the COVID-19 pandemic to a lower state of well-being for the community, by observing how it affected the mental health of the Philippine citizens. To achieve this goal, a Bayesian network was used to assess the state of the community, which was then extended into an influence diagram. Along with expert opinion on possible interventions (decision nodes), we can obtain an optimal set of interventions/decision nodes in order to lift the community’s state of mental well-being. The study aims to identify the proper decisions to make if another pandemic were to occur as well as become a framework for future applications of the Bayesian network into practical fields.