Analyzing climate variations on multiple timescales can guide Zika virus response measures

  1. Á.G. Muñoz
  2. M. C. Thomson
  3. L. Goddard
  4. S. Aldighieri

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Abstract

Background

The emergence of Zika virus (ZIKV) as a public health emergency in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) occurred during a period of severe drought and unusually high temperatures. Speculation in the literature exists that these climate conditions were associated with the 2015/2016 El Niño event and/or climate change but to date no quantitative assessment has been made. Analysis of related flaviviruses –such as dengue and chikungunya, which are transmitted by the same vectors– suggests that ZIKV dynamics is sensitive to climate seasonality and longer-term variability and trends. A better understanding the climate conditions conducive to the 2014-2016 epidemic may permit the development of climate-informed short- and long-term strategies for ZIKV prevention and control.

Results

Using a novel timescale-decomposition methodology, we demonstrate that extreme climate anomalies observed in most parts of South America during the current epidemic are not caused exclusively by El Niño or climate change –as speculated–, but are the result of a particular combination of climate signals acting at multiple timescales. In Brazil, the heart of the epidemic, we find that dry conditions present during 2013-2015 are explained primarily by year-to-year variability superimposed on decadal variability, but with little contribution of long-term trends. In contrast, the extreme warm temperatures of 2014-2015 resulted from the compound effect of climate change, decadal and year-to-year climate variability.

Conclusions

ZIKV response strategies adapted for a drought context in Brazil during El Niño 2015/2016 may need to be revised to accommodate the likely return of heavy rainfall associated with the probable 2016/2017 La Niña. Temperatures are likely to remain warm given the importance of long term and decadal scale climate signals.

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  1. GigaScience

    Now published in GigaScience doi: 10.1186/s13742-016-0146-1

    Á.G. Muñoz 1Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (AOS)/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Princeton University, NJ, USA.2International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Earth Institute, Columbia University, NY. USA3Latin American Observatory for Climate Events, Centro de Modelado Científico (CMC), Universidad del Zulia, Venezuela.Find this author on Google ScholarFind this author on PubMedSearch for this author on this siteORCID record for Á.G. MuñozM. C. Thomson 2International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Earth Institute, Columbia University, NY. USA4Mailman School of Public Health Department of Environmental Health Sciences. Columbia University. NY. USA5WHO Collaborating Centre (US 306) on Early Warning Systems for Malaria and other Climate Sensitive Diseases. USAFind this author on Google ScholarFind this author on PubMedSearch for this author on this siteL. Goddard 2International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Earth Institute, Columbia University, NY. USAFind this author on Google ScholarFind this author on PubMedSearch for this author on this siteS. Aldighieri 6International Health Regulations / Epidemic Alert and Response, and Water Borne Diseases (IR). Communicable Diseases and Health Analysis Department (CHA). PAHO. DC. USAFind this author on Google ScholarFind this author on PubMedSearch for this author on this site

    A version of this preprint has been published in the Open Access journal GigaScience (see paper https://doi.org/10.1186/s13742-016-0146-1 ), where the paper and peer reviews are published openly under a CC-BY 4.0 license.

    These peer reviews were as follows:

    Reviewer 1: http://dx.doi.org/10.5524/REVIEW.100498

  2. Version published to 10.1101/059808 on bioRxiv