Development of a COVID-19 risk assessment model for participants at outdoor music festivals: evaluation of the validity and control measure effectiveness based on two actual events in Japan and Spain
This article has been Reviewed by the following groups
Listed in
- Evaluated articles (ScreenIT)
Abstract
We developed an environmental exposure model to estimate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) risk among participants at outdoor music festivals and validated the model using two real events—one in Japan (Event 1) and one in Spain (Event 2). Furthermore, we considered a hypothetical situation in which Event 1 was held but enhanced measures were implemented to evaluate the extent to which the risk could be reduced by additional infection control measures, such as negative antigen tests on the day of the event, wearing of masks, disinfection of environmental surfaces, and vaccination. Among 7,392 participants, the total number of already- and newly-infected individuals who participated in Event 1 according to the new model was 47.0 (95% uncertainty interval: 12.5–185.5), which is in good agreement with the reported value (45). The risk of infection at Event 2 (1.98 × 10 −2 ; 95% uncertainty interval: 0.55 × 10 −2 –6.39 × 10 −2 ), calculated by the model in this study, was also similar to the estimated value in the previous epidemiological study (1.25 × 10 −2 ). These results for the two events in different countries highlighted the validity of the model. Among the additional control measures in the hypothetical Event 1, vaccination, mask-wearing, and disinfection of surfaces were determined to be effective. Based on the combination of all measures, a 94% risk reduction could be achieved. In addition to setting a benchmark for an acceptable number of newly-infected individuals at the time of an event, the application of this model will enable us to determine whether it is necessary to implement additional measures, limit the number of participants, or refrain from holding an event.
Article activity feed
-
-
SciScore for 10.1101/2022.02.28.22271676: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:This study has several limitations. First, the risk of infection outside the event was not assessed in this study; however, confirmed infected individuals may have been infected during activities outside the event. In particular, those who accompany infectors might also act together, even outside the event. Second, we validated the model …
SciScore for 10.1101/2022.02.28.22271676: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:This study has several limitations. First, the risk of infection outside the event was not assessed in this study; however, confirmed infected individuals may have been infected during activities outside the event. In particular, those who accompany infectors might also act together, even outside the event. Second, we validated the model based on the total number of infected individuals but did not validate the detailed calculations within the model such as the exposure rates related to each infection pathway and the risk of infection for each type of exposed person. Case-control studies with behavioral records of event participants and environmental measurements of viral concentrations in the air and surface would fill these knowledge gaps. Despite these limitations, a model for outdoor music festivals was successfully developed in this study and its validity was evaluated. The results of this study guide decision-making related to event organization such as the need to implement additional measures.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
-
