The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application

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Abstract

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  1. SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.02.20020016: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.


    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.


    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    There are several important limitations to this analysis. Our data include early case reports, with some associated uncertainty in the intervals of exposure and symptom onset. We have attempted here to use conservative bounds of possible exposure and symptom onset where exact times were not known, but there may be further inaccuracy in this data that we do not consider here. We have exclusively considered reported, confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV, which may overrepresent hospitalized individuals and others with severe symptoms. The incubation period for these severe cases may differ from that of less severe or subclinical infections, and is not typically an applicable measure for those with asymptomatic infections. Our model assumes a constant risk of 2019-nCoV infection in Wuhan from 1 December 2019 to present, based on the date of symptom onset of the first known case. This is a simplification of infection risk, as the outbreak has shifted from a likely common-source outbreak associated with a seafood market to human-to-human transmission. Moreover, phylogenetic analysis of 38 2019-nCoV genomes suggests that the virus may have been circulating prior to December [15]. To test the sensitivity of our estimates to that assumption, we performed an analysis where cases with unknown lower bounds on exposure were set to 1 December 2018, a full year earlier than in our primary analysis. Changing this assumption had little effect on the estimates of the median (<0.1 days different), and...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.


    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.


    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.


    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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