Epidemiological characteristics of mpox virus Clade Ib in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: the impact of transmission mode

  1. Cécile Kremer
  2. Sabin Sabiti Nundu
  3. Emmanuel Hasivirwe Vakaniaki
  4. Isabel Brosius
  5. Guy Mukari
  6. Papy Munganga
  7. Eugene Bangwen
  8. Jean Claude Tshomba
  9. Yves Mujula
  10. Elise De Vos
  11. Christophe Van Dijck
  12. Sarah Houben
  13. Oswaldo Gressani
  14. Cris Kacita
  15. Daniel Mukadi-Bamuleka
  16. Tony Wawina
  17. Eddy Lusamaki
  18. Amuri Aziza
  19. Patrick Mutombo
  20. Jean-Jacques Muyembe-Tamfum
  21. Placide Mbala-Kingebeni
  22. Laurens Liesenborghs
  23. Niel Hens
  24. Andrea Torneri
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Abstract

Monkeypox virus (MPXV) Clade Ib, a new MPXV subclade associated with sustained human-to-human transmission, emerged in eastern DRC in late 2023. Early spread mainly occurred among the adult population, primarily through sexual contact. We investigated how key epidemiological characteristics of the new MPXV Clade Ib outbreak in the DRC differ by transmission mode. We estimated the mean serial interval to be 8.57 days (95% CI 7.15 – 9.91 days). The serial interval was approximately four days shorter for putative sexual compared to non-sexual transmission. We estimated the mean incubation period to be 9.56 days (95% CrI 8.22 – 11.02 days), and approximately two days shorter for putative sexual compared to non-sexual transmission. These observed differences in serial interval and incubation period estimates by transmission mode suggest that the context in which an outbreak occurs is an essential factor to consider when devising public health policies.

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  1. Version published to 10.1101/2025.05.27.25328406v1 on medRxiv