Slower-than-exponential viral decay is prevalent and can reshape virus-microbe dynamics

Viral population dynamics are shaped by production and loss. For viruses of microbes, high standing levels of viral abundances are interpreted as evidence of high rates of viral-induced cellular loss and viral production, followed by rapid extracellular viral decay. Here we reassess assumptions of rapid extracellular decay in 17 curated datasets, finding that biphasic decay either fits better or is statistically indistinguishable from exponential decay in approximately half the datasets. In addition to intrinsic heterogeneity in decay rates, biphasic decay at population scales can arise generically through aggregation mechanisms, where single virions decay and viral aggregates are protected. Integrating aggregation-induced biphasic decay into a virus-host model reveals that accounting for aggregation can recapitulate joint observations of high virion abundances and low infection prevalence, without assuming significant levels of uniformly inefficient infection. Together, our results suggest that durable extracellular virion persistence is environmentally relevant in shaping virus–microbe population dynamics.