Multiple Fault Analysis and Drug Therapy on Signaling Pathways Using Dynamic Bayesian Network-based Model

Cancer-associated signaling pathways often exhibit abnormal activation under simultaneous dysregulation of multiple molecular components. This study presents a probabilistic temporal Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN)-based framework for analyzing multi-fault behaviour and intervention response in Growth Factor (GF) and Mitogen-Activated Protein Kinase (MAPK) signaling pathways. Unlike deterministic Boolean propagation, the proposed model represents each pathway component through an activation probability and propagates these probabilities over discrete time steps using soft-logic update rules. One-, two-, three-, and four-fault scenarios were systematically evaluated under a common lowest-burden input vector. The resulting output probabilities were summarized using an encoded pathway-burden score, and known-drug combinations were ranked using efficiency scores relative to no-intervention baselines. Pareto analysis was further used to balance intervention efficiency against drug-vector burden, while a custom dual-target search was performed to identify computational intervention hypotheses beyond predefined drug targets. Results showed that encoded burden increased with fault order in both pathways, with MAPK producing a higher baseline burden than GF. Among known-drug vectors, U0126+LY294002+Temsirolimus consistently emerged as the strongest low-burden candidate, achieving efficiency close to the maximum six-drug vector. Custom dual-target analysis identified ERK1/2+RPS6KB1 in GF and Raf+MEK1 in MAPK as high-impact computational target pairs. Runtime benchmarking showed that batched vectorized NumPy execution substantially improved scalability for higher-order fault simulations. Overall, the framework provides an interpretable and scalable approach for probabilistic pathway-level fault analysis and intervention prioritization.