Hemorrhagic Transformation After Endovascular Thrombectomy in Young Adults: A Prediction Model
Discuss this preprint
Start a discussion What are Sciety discussions?Listed in
This article is not in any list yet, why not save it to one of your lists.Abstract
Background and Purpose
Hemorrhagic transformation (HT) is a serious complication of endovascular thrombectomy (EVT), yet dedicated prediction models for young adults are lacking. We aimed to develop and externally validate a simplified risk score for HT in young adults with acute ischemic stroke undergoing EVT.
Methods
This multicenter retrospective study included patients aged 18 to 49 years with acute anterior circulation large vessel occlusion who underwent EVT. The primary outcome was any HT within 24 hours after EVT. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of HT, from which the NO-PAIN Score was derived. External validation was performed in an independent cohort of 138 patients.
Results
Among 598 patients in the derivation cohort, HT occurred in 176 (29.4%). Five independent predictors were identified: admission NIHSS, number of thrombectomy passes, atrial fibrillation, alcohol consumption, and mTICI grade. The mTICI grade demonstrated a non-linear, inverted U-shaped relationship with HT risk, peaking at partial recanalization. The NO-PAIN Score showed acceptable discrimination in both the derivation (C-index, 0.737; optimism-corrected C-index, 0.748) and external validation cohorts (C-index, 0.726), with satisfactory calibration.
Conclusions
The NO-PAIN Score is a simple risk prediction tool for HT after EVT in young adults with acute anterior circulation large vessel occlusion. It may assist in individualized risk stratification in this population.
