Comorbidities and disability trajectories in multiple sclerosis: A two-cohort study using multi-state Markov models
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Background
Comorbidities are common in multiple sclerosis (MS) and may influence disability outcomes, but their dynamic impact on bidirectional disability transitions and long-term disability remains incompletely understood. Better understanding of this longitudinal relationship could inform personalized disability management strategies for people with MS.
Methods
We leveraged two large electronic health record (EHR)-linked MS registries and applied multi-state Markov models (MSMs) to examine the extent to which individual comorbidities and overall comorbidity burden were associated with short-term disability transitions, long-term disability transition probabilities, and expected time spent in each disability state. We additionally compared MSM-based predictions of confirmed disability worsening (CDW) with Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH) model-based predictions using the integrated Brier score with bootstrap validation.
Results
Among 3,723 patients with MS (74.6% female; 86.2% non-Hispanic White; mean age=41.9 years; mean disease duration=5.4 years) contributing 41,860 disability assessments over a mean follow-up of 7.3 years, higher cardiometabolic and psychiatric comorbidity burden was associated with increased transition intensity toward worse disability states and decreased transition intensity toward improvement, with a stepwise gradient across burden levels. Compared with patients without comorbidities, those with ≥4 comorbidities had a 28% higher risk of worsening (HR=1.28 [1.06, 1.55]) and a 20% lower risk of improvement (HR=0.80 [0.67, 0.95]). Each individual comorbidity was significantly associated with worse disability transitions. Long-term estimates indicated a higher 5-year probability of severe disability and fewer years spent in the no-disability state among patients with greater comorbidity burden. CoxPH models showed directionally consistent associations but lower predictive accuracy for CDW compared with MSMs.
Conclusion
Cardiometabolic and psychiatric comorbidities are associated with worse disability trajectories in MS, reducing improvement and accelerating progression. By providing a nuanced framework to quantify short-term disability transitions and long-term disability patterns, MSMs may have real-world clinical utility in disability prediction.
