Bayesian networks to estimate prognosis in vascular cognitive impairment and small vessel disease: integrated analyses of interdependent contributors to multiple outcomes

Background: Vascular cognitive impairment (VCI) and small vessel disease (SVD) involve many interconnected factors influencing multiple outcomes, also beyond cognitive decline. Bayesian networks (BNs) can help unravel these complex interrelations, which we demonstrate in this proof-of-concept study in the Heart-Brain Connection cohort, including memory-clinic patients with SVD, patients with heart failure, carotid occlusive disease, and reference participants. Methods: We trained BNs and jointly modelled cognitive decline (Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) increase) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) over five years as outcomes in relation to multiple demographic and disease factors and emerging imaging and plasma biomarkers, also considering possible non-random dropout. Results: Of 566 individuals (median age 68, 64% men), 134 had MACE and 112 experienced CDR increase. Diagnostic group and baseline cognition were key determinants of both outcomes. The BN identified baseline clinical severity as a non-random dropout source. Plasma biomarkers formed an interconnected subnetwork, linked to demographic and vascular factors, but without direct dependencies with outcomes. The trained BN also provides individualized inference under partial evidence, informing on outcome probabilities. Conclusion: This proof-of-concept study demonstrates how BNs quantify and visualize the dependency structure underlying prognostic heterogeneity in VCI and SVD, including non-random dropout and positioning of emerging biomarkers.