Purely Data-driven Exploration of COVID-19 Pandemic After Three Months of the Outbreak
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Abstract
Many research studies have been carried out to understand the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic in its early phase. The current study is yet another contribution to better understand the disease properties by parameter estimation based on mathematical SIR epidemic modeling. The authors used Johns Hopkins University’s dataset to estimate the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 for five representative countries (Japan, Germany, Italy, France, and the Netherlands) that were selected using cluster analysis. As byproducts, the authors estimated the transmission, recovery, and death rates for each selected country and carried out statistical tests to see if there were any significant differences.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.08.20057638: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:One of the limitations of the study is the model, SIR, being theoretical. As a theoretical model, the forecasting of the pandemic progression from SIR might be misleading. For our five representative countries we provided the three hundred day simulation in the appendix. What we see from the simulations that the COVID-19 pandemic is more likely to start slowing down within 100-150 days starting from January 22. Looking at the times …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.08.20057638: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:One of the limitations of the study is the model, SIR, being theoretical. As a theoretical model, the forecasting of the pandemic progression from SIR might be misleading. For our five representative countries we provided the three hundred day simulation in the appendix. What we see from the simulations that the COVID-19 pandemic is more likely to start slowing down within 100-150 days starting from January 22. Looking at the times series of Susceptible individuals we see that over 80% of countries will be affected by the pandemic. However, we note that our model ignores any kinds of preventative situations and as such it is very likely that the total affected case will be much lower. It is possible to consider various improvements of the model where one can include other compartments such as Exposed or Quarantined individuals and consider non-autonomous system where the transmission rate is controlled according to the public awareness such as social distancing, self-quarantines, wearing masks etc.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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