Impact of control strategies on COVID-19 pandemic and the SIR model based forecasting in Bangladesh.

  1. Mohammad Rahman
  2. Asif Ahmed
  3. Khondoker Hossain
  4. Tasnima Haque
  5. Mohammad Islam
  6. Mohammad Hussain

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Abstract

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  1. Version published to 10.5455/fsh.2021.9
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.19.20071415: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    All the analyses were done in Microsoft Excel 2012 and SPSS 26 using the equations (E8, E9, and E10).
    Microsoft Excel
    suggested: (Microsoft Excel, RRID:SCR_016137)
    SPSS
    suggested: (SPSS, RRID:SCR_002865)
    Graphs were prepared using GraphPad Prism 8.
    GraphPad Prism
    suggested: (GraphPad Prism, RRID:SCR_002798)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    The SIR model assumes all the infection cases to be symptomatic, which is a limitation and could underestimate the actual cases because of an unsure number of asymptomatic cases. With this constraint, the SIR model satisfactorily predicts the cases till today (April 21). The prediction indicates that Bangladesh will enter equilibrium by the end of the first week of June with estimated total number of cases to be approximately 3782558, if no further stringent measures taken by the Government. It is projected that the effect of social distancing will be visible shortly by the end of April. However, Bangladesh is on the door to go into community transmission due to reported infringement of quarantine standard by people as well as other socio-demographic characteristics. The predictions completed using the epidemiological model in this study will be unacceptable if the transmission goes into stage-3 massively. Therefore, it may be concluded that, SIR model is enabling us to test our understanding of the disease epidemiology especially, COVID-19 by comparing model results and observed patterns. However, the outcomes from this study are supposed to be used only for qualitative understanding and rational estimation of the nature of pandemic, but are not meaningful for any judgment making or strategy/policy change.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: Please consider improving the rainbow (“jet”) colormap(s) used on page 13. At least one figure is not accessible to readers with colorblindness and/or is not true to the data, i.e. not perceptually uniform.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.19.20071415v2 on medRxiv
  4. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.19.20071415v1 on medRxiv