Analysis of the causes and consequences of the major concern on biodiversity change in the Curonian Lagoon and Baltic Sea Lithuanian coast

This study employs a bow-tie risk analysis framework to examine four critical biodiversity loss processes in Lithuanian coastal waters: blue mussel decline, commercial fishery stock reduction, dune habitat loss, and eutrophication. The framework identifies human activities, resulting pressures, preventive controls, mitigation measures, and consequences across ecological, economic, and social dimensions. The analysis reveals distinct temporal patterns of risk occurrence. The invasive round goby caused rapid blue mussel eradication, with ineffective monitoring and preventive controls leading to habitat degradation and ecosystem service losses. Commercial fishery stocks, particularly cod and pikeperch, have experienced long-term decline due to overfishing combined with climate change impacts, resulting in economic losses and trophic cascade effects. Coastal dune habitats require continuous management to maintain their UNESCO cultural landscape status, with climate change and tourism presenting significant pressures. Finally, eutrophication remains a persistent challenge, with Lithuania still needing substantial nutrient reduction to meet Baltic Sea Action Plan targets. Climate change further complicates management efforts across all four areas. The study highlights the effectiveness of the bow-tie approach in integrating diverse stakeholder perspectives and identifying critical control points for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management in coastal environments.