Analysis of the causes and consequences of major concern on biodiversity change in the Gulf of Oristano Area (Sardinia, Italy)

The Gulf of Oristano Area, located on the central-western coast of Sardinia (Italy, Mediterranean Sea), is a highly diverse and ecologically valuable region. This area features a mosaic of habitats, supports rich biodiversity, and sustains traditional fishing practices. It is also protected under various international and EU conservation frameworks. However, despite its ecological importance, the Gulf Area faces growing pressures from human activities such as overfishing, eutrophication, habitat loss, and the introduction of non-native species. This study applies a bow-tie risk analysis framework to identify key drivers, pressures, and consequences associated with three central ecological events: species decline and loss, habitat change, and increased competition with non-native species. Stakeholder consultations and standardized classification systems inform the assessment, highlighting the interplay between legal fishing, tourism, aquaculture, pollution, and infrastructure development. The analysis identifies both prevention and mitigation measures, such as spatial planning, environmental monitoring, citizen science, and sustainable tourism and fisheries initiatives. While the environmental regulation of the Gulf of Oristano Area provides a basis for ecosystem protection, persistent challenges – such as enforcement, fragmented governance, and low stakeholder engagement – hinder effectiveness. To ensure ecological integrity and socio-economic resilience in the central-western Sardinian coast, this study underscores the need for strengthened integrated coastal zone management, alignment with EU strategies, and investment in adaptive and participatory conservation approaches.