Causes and consequences of degrading marine communities in the Archipelago Sea

The Archipelago Sea in the northern Baltic Sea suffers from multistressor perturbations, including ones related to local nutrient loading as well as consequences from global climate change. In this study, we use the bow-tie risk analysis framework to examine and illustrate how these drivers, eutrophication and climate change, contribute to biodiversity loss and associated implications of this in the Archipelago Sea. The bow-tie approach indicates both causes and ecological, economic, and social consequences of a problem as well as measures to prevent and mitigate the identified causes and consequences. For the Archipelago Sea, the bow-tie approach illustrated highly interlinked impacts of agriculture and aquaculture-driven eutrophication and climate change in degrading marine communities in the Northern Baltic Sea. Similarly, the consequences of this biodiversity loss were complex and highly interlinked. Many of the marine communities in the study area are highly connected, and as this may propagate the degradation of biodiversity and ecosystem services, future assessments should aim to include both trophic and non-trophic interactions in the bow-tie risk analysis. The study also highlights the need to prevent and mitigate multiple drivers of biodiversity loss simultaneously in order to reduce and stop the ongoing degradation of marine habitats and the ecosystem services they support.