Five Years of COVID-19 in Tocantins, Brazil: Epidemiology, Vaccination Impact, and SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Dynamics (2020–2025)

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Tocantins, Brazil, exhibited distinct phases between 2020 and 2025, with high mortality concentrated in 2020–2021 and subsequent stabilization at residual levels. Using epidemiological data, statistical modeling, and genomic surveillance, we show that the crisis peaked in 2021, coinciding with the circulation of Gamma and Delta, when health system capacity was severely strained. From 2022 onwards, the spread of Omicron led to record incidence but proportionally low mortality, reflecting accumulated immunity, vaccination, and improved clinical management. Vaccination represented the turning point, reducing hospitalizations and deaths by over 90% and driving a clear decoupling between incidence and severity. Interrupted time-series and generalized additive model (GAM) analyses confirmed sustained reductions in transmission and severity associated with mass immunization. Genomic sequencing of 3941 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomes identified 166 lineages and successive variant replacements, culminating in the predominance of LP.8.1.4 in 2025. To our knowledge, this is one of the few integrated, long-term analyses (2020–2025) combining epidemiological and genomic data, capturing the full succession of variants up to LP.8.1.4 and highlighting Tocantins as a strategic “variant corridor” linking Brazil’s North and Central-West regions. These findings underscore the dual role of vaccination and genomic surveillance in shaping the epidemic trajectory and the importance of sustaining both strategies to mitigate future health crises.