Assessment of Land Cover Changes and an Exploration of the Sustainability Key Factors at Al-Ahsa Oasis in Saudi Arabia

Since 2018, Al-Ahsa Oasis has become a UNESCO site because of the integration of the natural, agricultural, and cultural elements. The objective of this research is to investigate land cover changes (LCC) in this region and the key sustainability factors that influence their likelihood of occurrence between 2000 and 2020. A two-stage methodology was employed, first estimating the LCC level using USA-ArcGIS 10.3 and USA-ENVI 5.4 on digital data gathered from satellites visualizations (LANDSAT). Second, it evaluates the LCC occurrence variables using a binary logistic model (BLM) based on data from 105 surveyed farmers. The major findings reveal a decline in the vegetation area by 324.35 ha and in the desert area by 1625.81 ha. Meanwhile, the areas of bare ground and the city have increased by 1389.79 ha and 560.37 ha, respectively. According to the BLM findings, climate change, elderly farmers (more than 50 years), and small holding size raised the likelihood of LCC occurrence, with an odds ratio superior to one. Meanwhile, it was negatively impacted by the use of modern irrigation methods (drip and sprinkler), technology, and the availability of scavenger manpower in the oasis. Their odds ratios are inferior to one. The urban sprawl had a non-significant negative effect on the LCC. To preserve the identity of the zone as a sustainable agricultural and UNESCO heritage site, the researchers advocate for awareness and extension efforts aimed at the elderly to improve traditional production practices, enhance plant resilience, increase farm sizes for better earnings, and combat climate change effects to protect native plant species.