Enhancing Post-Disaster Food Security Through Urban Agriculture in the Context of Climate Change

Cities face growing challenges from climate change, including rising temperatures, extreme rainfall, and intensifying urban heat islands, resulting in significant socio-cultural costs. Urban areas are increasingly vulnerable to food insecurity during disasters, yet the potential of urban agriculture (UA) to address this challenge remains underexplored. This study focuses on Wellington, New Zealand (NZ), a region highly prone to earthquakes, to evaluate the role of UA in enhancing post-disaster food security. The study calculates vegetable self-sufficiency by mapping potential productive land, estimating vegetable yields, and assessing post-disaster food demands across multiple scenarios. Potential productive land was quantified using a reproducible GIS-based method, considering three soil-based UA types: private yards, communal gardens, and urban farms. Due to Wellington’s mountainous topography, slopes and aspects were used to select four land scenarios. Three yield scenarios were estimated using aggregated data from previous studies and cross-checked with local UA and NZ conventional farming data. Food demands were based on NZ’s recommended vegetable intake and three targeted population scenarios: the entire population, displaced populations, and vulnerable populations. Results indicate that potential productive land is primarily evenly distributed in the eastern part within the city boundary, accounting for 0.3% to 1.5% of the total area. Vegetable self-sufficient rates for Wellington through UA range from 3% to 75%, with higher rates for displaced and vulnerable populations. These figures significantly exceed the current self-sufficiency rate estimated in the authors’ preliminary research, indicating Wellington’s considerable potential to enhance post-disaster food security through expanding UA and promoting related initiatives. However, realizing this potential will require stronger policy support, integrating UA with urban planning and disaster preparedness.