A Methodologic Approach to Study Large and Complex Landslides: An Application in Central Apennines

The evaluation of landslide hazards in seismic areas is based on a deterministic analysis, which is unable to account for various uncertainties in the analysis process. This paper focuses on the probabilistic local seismic hazard analysis and extends the results to the landslide hazard analysis to consider both the uncertainties of the ground deformations and the strengths. The work studies the areas between Nibbiano and Sant’Erasmo hamlets in the Camerino municipality located in central Italy, where all constructions present evidence of damage caused by both the seismic sequence of 2016–2017 and the slope instability. An exhaustive geological and geophysical investigation has clarified the geological, geomorphological, and hydrogeological characteristics of the area, enabling a new characterization of material stress-strain behaviour. The study reveals that the low stiffness of the debris covers, and their fair degree of permeability contribute to potential instability scenarios triggered by both intense rainfall and the effects of strong earthquakes. The goal was to utilize the results to support local urban planning because in-depth knowledge of the possible evolutionary scenarios of the slopes is fundamental to the management of the degree of danger for structures, especially for people. Moreover, it was shown once again how a multi-source approach, with different investigation techniques, cannot be ignored for the study of the evolution of complex landslides.