Probability assessment of potential earthquake-induced landslides in the Namche Barwa Syntaxis，eastern Himalaya

The probabilistic hazard analysis of potential seismic landslides mainly combines Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) with the Newmark displacement model, providing the potential earthquake-induced landslides hazard zonation at regional scale. Based on the engineering geological conditions and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) datas of the Namche Barwa Syntaxis, this paper provides the probability of instability of potential earthquake-induced landslides with exceeding probability 10% of 50 years. According to the results, the potential earthquake-induced landslides risk is divided into three grades: low-risk (P(f) ≤ 0.2), moderate-risk (0.2 < P(f) ≤ 0.3), and high-risk (0.3 < P(f) ≤ 0.4). The high-risk areas are mainly distributed near the Namche Barwa Peak (NB), Galabai Peak (GB), and along the steeper valleys of the Yarlung Zangbo River, Parlung Zangbo River, Zepu Qu, and Jinzhu Zangbu River. This result can provide a basis for regional seismic geological disaster prevention planning and emergency response plan formulation, and provide reference and suggestions for the safety of major engineering construction.