Exploring the Fire Regime in Gilé National Park, Zambézia Province, Central Mozambique

The Gilé National Park (PNAG for its acronym in Portuguese), located in central Mozambique is one of the most important protected areas in the country. It is one of the last remnants of intact Miombo woodlands, providing critical habitat for endemic biodiversity. Fires are an important ecological factor in Miombo, but changes in fire regimes may compromise the stability of this ecosystem and thus, the conservation value of PNAG. This study assessed fire patterns and mapped fire risk in support of adaptive management in the PNAG. We investigated Miombo fire regime over 23 years (2001 to 2023) in terms of return interval, frequency, temporal distribution, spatial density and intensity, extent, and severity, by using two Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products (MCD14ML active fire; MCD64A1 burned area). Primary risk drivers were established and spatial fire likelihood mapped, using the Random Forest algorithm. Analysis revealed pronounced late dry season burning (August–October) affecting approximately 60% of the PNAG annually, especially in central-northern and eastern landscapes. Remarkably, 88% of the park maintains a 1-to-2-year fire return interval across the entire fire season (May–October) while only 7% maintains return frequencies of 3-to-4-year cycles. The latter is important for maintaining Miombo ecosystem functionality. Medium to medium–high fire severity covered 98% of the total fire extension. Climate-related drivers and hunting activities were identified as key fire initiators, especially in central areas of the park. The findings demonstrate an urgent need for spatially differentiated fire management action through prescribed burning to maintain PNAG’s ecological resilience and conservation value.