Predicting the Potential Distribution of Galeruca daurica in Inner Mongolia Under Current and Future Climate Scenarios Using the MaxEnt Model

In the context of climate change and grassland degradation, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, a key ecological barrier in Northern China, has faced recurrent outbreaks of the pest beetle Galeruca daurica. This study aims to project its potential geographic distribution under current and future climate scenarios to support risk assessment and management strategies. Using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model with 122 occurrence records and environmental variables (climatic, topographic, and edaphic), we simulated habitat suitability under present conditions and future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 for the 2050s and 2070s). The model performed excellently (AUC > 0.9), with key predictors being precipitation of the wettest month (39.6%), annual precipitation (24.0%), and annual temperature range (8.2%). Currently, about 44.9% of the region is suitable habitat, mainly in central–western arid and semi-arid areas. Future projections indicate a contraction in suitability, which is most pronounced under SSP2-4.5 (declining to 23.56% by the 2070s), along with a northward shift in the distribution centroid. These findings suggest that climate change will likely reduce and shift the suitable range of G. daurica, providing a scientific basis for early warning and targeted control in vulnerable grassland ecosystems.