Core Habitat Resilience and Marginal Contraction: Projected Mid-Century Distribution Dynamics of Ophiocordyceps sinensis across the Tibetan Plateau under Climate Scenarios

Ophiocordyceps sinensis is a precious fungal resource primarily found on the Tibetan Plateau. Its habitat has been reduced by overharvesting and climate change, and has been classified as Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List. Although studies have investigated the distribution of O. sinensis , they seldom address its temporal dynamics under ongoing climate change. To address this, the study applied MaxEnt modeling using environmental variables to predict the distribution of O. sinensis . Incorporating a temporal dimension (past–present–future), distributions under historical climate conditions were used to validate model transferability, with projections then extrapolated to future SSP3-7.0 scenarios. The MaxEnt results indicated elevation and warmest-quarter precipitation collectively contributed 91.3% to distribution predictions, establishing them as dominant predictors. Model projections revealed a 54% decline in suitable habitat area, from historically ~ 396,000 km² to ~ 182,000 km² presently, representing a net contraction of 214,000 km². Under future SSP3-7.0 scenarios, the suitable habitat area of O. sinensis stabilizes at 3.78% of China's total land, representing a slight increase from current levels. This slight increase is driven by localized habitat expansion near the Tanggula Mountains, which partially offsets losses in lower-elevation regions. Given the significant habitat contraction under climate change, this research provides critical insights for conserving O. sinensis refugia and developing climate-adaptive management strategies for its sustainable utilization.