Contested flows: A dynamical systems modeling approach to understanding actor narratives and strategies in water governance

Governance is increasingly understood to be a complex system shaped by diverse actors. However, understanding of how these actors interact with the institutions and infrastructure systems in which they are embedded to drive change is still limited. An interdisciplinary approach is needed to understand factors shaping actors' political behavior and how power dynamics influence their ability to create change. This study addresses this gap by combining analysis of actors' narratives about water issues and governance with dynamical systems modeling of the socio-hydrologic system in the context of California's San Joaquin Valley. Through interviews and focus groups with growers, advocacy groups, and rural residents, distinct narratives emerge around water issues and power dynamics. Modeling strategies that would maximize each actor's water access reveals that existing structures incentivize strategies that would mainly benefit larger growers, and thus conflict with the goals of environmental justice narratives. Comparing these modeled strategies with actors' actual strategies also reveals disparities in different actors' ability to pursue the "optimal" strategy. These findings highlight how system structures entrench certain interests as well as the potential of narratives for shaping strategies aimed at long-term transformation.