Modeling narratives of water governance transformation

Broad transformations in natural resource governance areneeded to address environmental change and inequities. Current human-watersystems models fall short in their ability to explore such transformationsby overlooking changes to infrastructure and institutions and howthey impact power dynamics and vulnerability among water users. Here,we introduce a complex systems approach to examine the viability ofdifferent transformation narratives for California's San Joaquin Valley,and their implications for the power and vulnerability of differentgroups. Using interviews and focus groups with growers, advocacy groups,and rural residents, we develop and model governance scenarios basedon these narratives. While most scenarios maintain or exacerbate existingdisparities, we find a path towards equitable water governance involvinga shift towards greater state oversight and community engagement ingovernance, and smaller-scale agriculture with more direct benefitsto rural communities.