Oil Price Shock and the Philippine Economy: A SAM Multiplier and Structural Path Analysis of the 2026 US-Israel-Iran Conflict

The 2026 US-Israel-Iran conflict and the resulting Strait of Hormuz disruption sent Dubai crude above $130 per barrel, acutely exposing the Philippines as an economy sourcing around 90% of crude from the Middle East. Using the 2023 IFPRI Nexus Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), this paper provides an economy-wide welfare assessment combining SAM multiplier analysis with Structural Path Analysis (SPA) across seven policy scenarios, including the enacted TRAIN excise suspension (RA 12316) and the UPLIFT emergency transfer framework (EO 110). At current shock levels, Philippine GDP contracts by PHP 659 billion (2.23%) under full pass-through; the 50% baseline scenario, a conservative lower bound, yields a 1.12% contraction. Welfare losses are regressive, with the poorest rural households losing 2.4 times more income than the richest urban households, a ratio that persists regardless of the scale of excise relief due to its rank-neutrality. Pure targeted transfers without excise suspension deliver full protection to bottom-40% households at PHP 25.9 billion (0.09% of GDP), one-eleventh the cost of full tax suspension, providing a model-derived spending floor for the UPLIFT social amelioration programme. Pass-through management is the most powerful short-run instrument, cutting losses by three-quarters at 25% pass-through and exceeding the relief from full excise suspension.