Enough of what? Changes in support for Chega between 2019 and 2025

In the 2025 election, the populist radical right party Chega gained 22.8 per cent of the Portuguese vote. In this article, we examine changes in support for Chega at the municipal level between 2019 and 2025. We analyse the relationship between changes in predictors and changes in the outcome to better understand the rapid rise of the party. Changes in grievances are associated with changes in votes, notably decreases in income and increases in overall crime are associated with larger increases in support for Chega. By contrast, changes in social benefits, the share of the foreign population and net migration are not associated with changes in support. We show that net of grievances, changes in turnout are strongly associated with changes in votes for Chega – evidence of a mobilization effort. Key results are robust to different specifications. Thus, we highlight the mobilization effects of populist radical right parties.