United but Divided. The Segmented Rally in a Polarized Society in Wartime

Studies of public reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war have renewed interest in the rally-round-the-flag phenomenon of public opinion. At the same time, another group of studies has focused on political polarization and the strengthening of radical right parties in many countries. The current study synthesizes these two lines of research by exploring how public opinion in deeply polarized countries changes in response to violent international conflicts that, in a less polarized context, would likely have led most citizens to close ranks behind the government and its war policy. We analyzed original panel data collected in Israel before and after the October 7 massacre and during Israel’s retaliation in Gaza. The findings reveal a “segmented rally,” in which the vast majority of Jewish Israelis supported the war and trusted the security forces, but trust in the government and the prime minister was more limited. In addition, the analysis identified two distinct sets of mechanisms driving opinion formation. Support for the war and security forces was motivated by feelings of threat, humiliation, and rage. In contrast, respondents’ trust or mistrust of the government and the prime minister hinged on what they viewed as the cause of the security crisis—the government or anti-government protesters—an assessment driven by their preexisting views on the government’s “judicial reform” initiative. The paper concludes by discussing the mutual impacts of polarization and public reactions to crises.