Public Opinion on Civil War in the USA as of Mid-2024: Findings from a Nationally Representative Survey

Background: In 2023, Wave 2 of an annual, nationally representative longitudinal survey found a concerning level of agreement that civil war was likely in the United States and, among those who agreed, widespread belief that civil war was needed. This study updates those findings to this election year and explores respondents’ predicted involvement in such a conflict. Methods: Findings are from Wave 3, conducted May 23-June 14, 2024; participants were members of Ipsos KnowledgePanel. All respondents to prior waves who remained in KnowledgePanel were invited to participate; to facilitate comparison with the 2023 findings, this analysis is restricted to Wave 3 respondents who had responded to both Wave 1 and Wave 2. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions and adjusted prevalence differences, with p-values adjusted for the false discovery rate and reported as q-values. Results: The Wave 3 completion rate was 88.4% overall and 91.6% for respondents to Wave 2; there were 8185 respondents in the analytic sample. After weighting, half the sample was female (50.6%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 49.1%, 52.1%); the weighted mean (± standard deviation) age was 50.8 (16.4) years. Few respondents agreed strongly or very strongly that “in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States” (6.5%, 95% CI 5.7%, 7.3%) or that “the United States needs a civil war to set things right” (3.6%, 95% CI 3.0%, 4.2%). These prevalences were higher among subsets of respondents having characteristics previously associated with increased support for and willingness to commit political violence. A large majority (84.2%, 95% CI 83.1%, 85.3%) considered it not likely that they would participate as a combatant if civil war did occur. Of the 3.7% (95% CI, 3.1%, 4.3%) who thought it very or extremely likely that they would be combatants, 44.5% (95% CI, 36.5%, 52.6%) reported that their position would convert to not likely if this were urged by family members, 23.4% (95% CI, 16.7%, 30.1%) if by friends, 30.5% (95% CI, 23.0%, 38.0%) if by a respected religious leader, 26.3% (95% CI, 19.4%, 33.3%) if by a respected elected official or other public figure, and 23.6% (95% CI, 16.4%, 30.8%) if by a respected news or social media source. Findings were similar for respondents who additionally reported that it was very or extremely likely that they would “kill a combatant from the opposing side.”Conclusions: In mid-2024, the expectation that civil war was likely and the belief that it was needed were uncommon and were unchanged from 2023. Those expecting to participate as combatants reported openness to change in response to input from many sources. These findings can help guide prevention efforts.