Unintended Consequences of Transnational Repressions: How Exile Organizations Gain Support in Response to Criminalization by Autocratic Homelands

Autocrats often use legal repression to criminalize opposition organizations, targeting both domestic and exile groups to suppress dissent. While such measures may weaken cooperation with these organizations domestically, these organizations can simultaneously gain increased support from migrant communities. This study explores whether autocrats achieve their intended outcomes by legally repressing exile organizations through criminalization. Utilizing a conjoint experiment with 5,996 Russian emigrants residing in 89 countries who left their homeland following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, we investigate how attributes such as criminalization, anonymity of donations, and transparency influence their cooperation with exile organizations in a geopolitically shaped environment.Our findings show that criminalization can backfire: Russian exiles perceive it as a marker of political authenticity and effectiveness, providing crucial cues in an environment with limited information and fostering solidarity. Consequently, criminalization can facilitate collective action and the coordination of extraterritorial opposition, signaling which organizations are genuinely committed to opposing the regime. However, geopolitical alliances matter, as cooperation is hindered where perceived risks are high, particularly in host countries allied with the autocrat. Technological solutions, such as anonymous donations, significantly mitigate these risks and boost support, while transparency is key to engaging the most politically active donors. This study contributes to understanding the limits of autocratic transnational control and demonstrates how exile organizations can leverage low-cost measures to foster diaspora’s resilience and address problems of collective action and coordination.