The Trump Effect on Global Autocratization: Theory and Evidence from Israel and Türkiye

How has the retrenchment of US democracy promotion under President Donald Trump affected processes of autocratization in US allies globally and in the Middle East specifically? We provide theory and evidence to address this question by analyzing two US allies with preexisting processes of executive aggrandizement: Israel and Türkiye. We argue that the decline in US pro-democratic pressure has enabled autocratization in both countries. Furthermore, we show that the degree and processes of US autocracy promotion differ depending on two domestic factors: political leaders’ control over the state and domestic attitudes toward the United States. These factors shape whether US foreign policy enables autocratization through active “autocracy promotion,” in which the United States helps undermine domestic institutional constraints, or instead through a “normalization of authoritarianism,” in which strongman rule becomes an accepted norm. We further show that when public attitudes are pro-American, illiberal political leaders can leverage US support as part of their domestic legitimation strategy by fostering “symbolic alignment” with the US president. By contrast, in anti-American societies, leaders practice “managed incoherence,” in which a leader’s anti-American narratives coexist uneasily with US acquiescence to autocratization. We demonstrate the theory in Israel and Türkiye, two US allies with differing levels of incumbent control over the state and contrasting public attitudes toward the United States. We find that in both Israel and Türkiye, the retrenchment of US democracy promotion has enabled autocratization, but to different degrees and through different pathways. Our findings contribute to scholarly understanding of the international dimensions of democratic backsliding, authoritarianism in the Middle East, and the effects of US hegemony.