Which Forms of Capital Facilitate Post-Disaster Agricultural Resilience?

What kinds of societal factors facilitate agricultural recovery and damage mitigation?Many previous studies have demonstrated that the three forms of capital—social capital, economic capital, and human capital—contribute to various aspects of post-disaster recovery.However, it remains unclear whether these forms of capital are also linked to the recovery of industries and land use.Therefore, this study examined the effects of these three forms of capital on agricultural recovery.Agriculture is a key sector for achieving a sustainable society, and it is desirable that farmland continues to be properly utilized even after disasters. Clarifying the characteristics of regions where farmland is appropriately maintained after a disaster is thus essential for realizing sustainability.In this study, we employed satellite remote sensing and causal inference methods to investigate changes in paddy utilization in areas affected by the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake in Japan. We then examined the relationships between fluctuations in paddy field use and village-level social, economic, and human capital.The results suggest that in severely affected areas, after controlling for other regional characteristics, social capital had a positive effect on agricultural resilience. By contrast, in areas with relatively minor disaster damage, economic capital had a positive effect, whereas human capital exhibited a negative effect.These findings imply that the effects of different forms of capital are not consistent, and that their impacts on agricultural resilience may vary depending on severity of the physical damage. This study contributes new insights to the fields of social science and disaster research, while also offering methodological advances to these disciplines.