Spatial and Interpretive Mapping of the Sahel Transnational Conflict Economies

Transnational conflict economies (TCEs) entrench and propagate violence in the Sahel, yet their spatial patterns remain insufficiently mapped and interpreted, limiting how finely interventions can be targeted to foster stability. Here, we map the Sahel TCEs using an integrated Actor–Sector–Activity–Event (ASAE) lens. Our analysis follows a three-stage empirical sequence. First, we compile ASAE-related data from document reviews, expert interviews and specialised databases (including Illicit Arms Flow Database and Armed Conflict Location and Event Database) across five Sahelian countries (Chad, Burkina Faso, Mali, Nigeria and Sudan). Second, we document conflict events, map hotspots, and detect clustering in tri-border areas using geospatial analysis. Third, using network analysis of ASAE overlaps and interactions, we delineate three distinct conflict economy blocks: (i) Liptako-Gourma (dominated by gold smuggling and livestock rustling under Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin control); (ii) Lake Chad basin (marked by aid diversion, kidnapping and illegal taxation by Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province); and (iii) Darfur-Kordofan-Nile Valley (characterised by mineral and arms cyclical flows under Rapid Support Forces dominance). These blocks constitute key nodes within the Sahel TCEs where conflict exceeds regional averages since 2023. They link local violence to transnational instability through distinct ASAE clustering. Our ASAE-block analysis (i) delivers integrated spatial-relational mapping beyond descriptive observation, (ii) identifies critical nodes where disrupting illicit flows and actor networks could weaken TCEs, and (iii) offers a replicable model applicable in other fragile settings.