Loose Derivation Chains and Scientific Stagnation in Criminology: Evidence from Self-Control Research

Criminological research often fails to achieve cumulative theoretical progress despite methodological sophistication. Paul Meehl’s concept of “logical derivation chains” provides a diagnostic framework for understanding this persistent problem, yet it remains largely absent from criminological practice. Using Gottfredson and Hirschi’s self-control theory as a detailed case study, including empirical analysis illustrating potential measurement incoherence, I argue that loose derivation chains are structural features of social scientific inquiry rather than correctable methodological problems. Through systematic analysis of sampling, measurement, and analytical choices, I reveal how auxiliary assumptions accumulate throughout the research process, creating compound derivation chain failures. The analysis identifies a “correlation paradox” where a correlation of r = -.31 (p < 2e-16), typically celebrated as impressive empirical support, corresponds to theoretical failure for 39% of individual cases. Contemporary statistical methods systematically privilege aggregate patterns over individual variation, rendering theoretically crucial anomalies invisible and creating research programs that appear progressive despite exhibiting degenerating characteristics. The analysis concludes with strategies for constraint-aware research, including individual-level prediction assessment and item-specific analysis that reveal theoretically important anomalies hidden by aggregate correlations, alongside institutional reforms that encourage genuine theoretical advancement over mere accumulation of supportive correlations.