Expert-identified Crime and Security Risks of Climate Change Mitigation Technologies

Climate change mitigation technologies (CCMTs) play a key role in decarbonisation efforts, but may also create new opportunities for crime and security risks that have remained under-explored. This study presents an expert-informed assessment of crime threats and countermeasures associated with CCMTs, involving 28 experts from government, law enforcement, industry, academia, and civil society. Through structured idea generation, thematic analysis, and forecasting surveys, the participants evaluated 35 distinct crime threats and 36 countermeasures, of which 13 threats and 18 countermeasures were uniquely identified by them. The identified risks were found to be concentrated in CCMT supply chains and resource extraction, with high-priority threats relating to environmental harms, illegal mining, and human rights abuse, alongside cyber-enabled and financial crimes. Promising countermeasures include CCMT-specific regulation, risk assessment, data sharing, physical security, and targeted education. The findings show that the green transition reshapes rather than removes crime risks, underscoring the need for proactive governance to ensure a secure and sustainable low-carbon transition.