Projections of Climate Change Vulnerability along the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, 2020-2100

In this paper we present estimates of socioeconomic vulnerability along three major scenarios developed as part of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for 181 countries over the period 2020-2100. The estimates are based on the GDL Vulnerability Index (GVI), a composite index for monitoring the human components of vulnerability to climate change across the globe. The GVI is based on an additive formula that summarizes the essence of seven major socioeconomic dimensions of vulnerability into a single number. This formula approach makes it possible to compute the index for any region at any point in time for which the underlying indicators are available. This makes the GVI the first composite index which can be used to estimate projected values of vulnerability. We use and derive projected indicators from the databases underlying the SSPs and other sources to compute future values of the GVI at the level of countries, major global regions and for three vulnerability levels. Projections of GVI are provided for three SSPs: a green road scenario (SSP1), a middle of the road scenario (SSP2), and a rocky road scenario with high international fragmentation (SSP3). Vulnerability decreases most substantially under SSP1, the green road scenario with largest emission reductions. Countries and regions which at present are most vulnerable are projected to show the largest improvements.