Climate-induced internal migration in India: Looking back to the past to understand the present

This paper investigates climate-induced internal migration in India, focusing on district-level migration patterns and their relationship with climatic stressors using historical census data and statistical modeling. Internal migration, which refers to the domestic movement of people, is often driven by intersecting economic, social, and environmental factors. Climate change is increasing but unevenly playing a role in decisions to migrate. The study emphasizes India’s status as a climate-migration hotspot, characterized by diverse geographic and population heterogeneity, and highlights the limitations of existing migration data, particularly the delayed 2021 Census. To address these gaps, the paper employs a novel statistical approach to estimate district out-migration, district-to-district migration, and district in-migration around 2021 by leveraging data from the 2001 and 2011 censuses alongside temperature and precipitation extremes derived from historical climate records from 1961-2021. The methodology integrates harmonized district boundaries and fixed-effects modeling to account for confounding factors while projecting migration trends under varying climatic conditions. Results reveal significant associations between climatic extremes, both positive and negative and migration flows, underscoring the role of climate stressors in shaping migration decisions. By generating predictive estimates for 2021 migration patterns, the study offers insights into how climate variability potentially influences internal migration dynamics in India. The findings contribute to broader discussions on how to incentivize climate change adaptation given the reality of highly mobile populations in India and provides pointers on reducing vulnerabilities in migrant-sending and migrant-receiving areas.