Socio-environmental impacts of climate change in the Metropolitan Area of Xalapa, Mexico: challenges and opportunities

This study aims to analyze the challenges and opportunities faced by the Metropolitan Area (MA) of Xalapa, México, in the context of climate uncertainties. The methodology was divided into two phases: the first involved analyzing variations in temperature and precipitation patterns from 1960 to 2020, using historical climate data sourced from the WorldClim platform, processed with R statistical software and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Through time series analysis and linear regression modeling, the study identified key climate variability patterns. The second phase mapped and examined social groups and their respective actions to mitigate the impacts of climate change, thus formulating climate action strategies. The results indicate an increase of 1.24°C in minimum temperatures and 1.31°C in maximum temperatures between 1960 and 2020. In addition, a decrease in precipitation frequency was observed, resulting in a reduction of 19.4 mm in the analyzed period. However, the region has experienced more intense precipitation events, with the pattern of rainfall becoming more concentrated in the more populous areas. These shifting climate patterns could present significant challenges, including increased pressure on water supply systems due to prolonged droughts, negative impacts on agriculture, and a growing need for investments in disaster risk management. The study also highlights opportunities to implement adaptive measures to mitigate the adverse effects of global warming, supported by a participatory governance model that has historically been established in the region.