What Role Did Immigration Attitudes Play in Latinos’ 2016-2024 Swing Toward the GOP?

After the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections, scholars and observers frequently characterized Latino voters as unlikely to support anti-immigration candidates, especially when immigration is salient. However, between 2016 and 2024, Latinos were among the groups that swung the most toward the GOP. Given the mismatch between Donald Trump's strident opposition to unauthorized immigration and Latinos' historically pro-immigration views, understanding the role of Latinos' immigration attitudes in vote choice in this period is theoretically important. Acknowledging that Latinos are not single-issue voters, we investigate this question using multiple high-quality, population-based panels of Latinos (2016-2024). We document a restrictionist turn in Latinos' attitudes alongside perceptions that both parties slightly moderated. We find that Latinos placed just as much weight on immigration policy in their 2024 vote choice as in 2016. Our results suggest that while immigration has not waned in importance for Latinos, changes in attitudes from 2016-2024 somewhat eroded Democrats' advantage on this issue.