How Migration Attitudes Harden: Longitudinal Trajectories of Support for Migration Restrictions in a Rapidly Diversifying Society

This study examines the rise in restrictive attitudes towards migration in Chile, where themigrant population has grown from 4% to nearly 9% in seven years. Using five waves (2018–2023) of thenationally representative ELSOC panel (N = 2,214), it analyzes both between- and within-person changes inmigration attitudes. We document a sharp increase in support for migration restrictions between 2018 and2023, identifying three longitudinal trajectories through latent class growth analysis: consistently restrictive,rapidly increasing restrictive, and late increasing restrictive. Membership in these groups was predictedby educational level, perceived threat, and ideology. We then employ a Random Intercept Cross-LaggedPanel Model to uncover within-person dynamics: As expected, declining perceptions of migrants’ statusand similarity predicted subsequent increases in support for restrictions, however, contrary to expectations,perceived realistic and symbolic threat did not show a prospective effect. Instead, stronger restrictionistviews heightened perceived threat and reduced perceived similarity over time, revealing a self-reinforcingcycle between restrictive attitudes and negative intergroup perceptions. We interpret this as evidence thatpolicy preferences may precede and shape intergroup perceptions, as individuals seek internal attitudinalconsistency.