Reconciling the Sex Recession Debate: Male Exclusion and Reporting Bias in Two National Surveys

Prior studies of young adult sexlessness reached conflicting conclusions: GSS-based analyses found rising male sexlessness, while NSFG-based studies found no male-specific trend. This study reconciles these through three innovations: (1) distinguishing virginity (symmetric rise) from dry spells among experienced adults (gender-divergent); (2) identifying a 2017-2019 NSFG measurement anomaly via stock analysis; and (3) documenting male distributional polarization (moderate-middle collapse). Difference-in-differences show GSS sexlessness gap widening 10.6 pp (p = .024) and NSFG dry spells 6.2 pp (p = .014) for 18-24 year-olds post2012. Stock measure analysis and digit heaping confirm reporting bias in the anomalous wave (p < .001). CPS validation reveals parallel male singlehood acceleration (+0.49 pp/year slope change, p = .003). Age falsification concentrates effects in app-exposed cohorts. Independent validation from CPS relationship-status data—free of sexual reporting bias—shows a parallel post-2012 acceleration in male singlehood.