Population-level effects of education and material conditions on religious change in Chiapas, Mexico

Why do people adopt new and different religious beliefs and practices, especially when it is often costly? Economic approaches to religion highlight the role of material conditions on people’s religious affiliation. However, studies often rely on data inconsistent with the level of analysis of their hypothesized mechanisms, or infer material motivations to join a new religion from observed material outcomes. We present an econometric study of religious conversion by focusing on the increase in non-Catholic Christianity in Chiapas, Mexico. This state has the most converts, as well as the poorest and least formally educated population in the country, suggesting education and material conditions influence conversion. We test this hypothesis by analyzing longitudinal municipality level data from the Mexican Population Census (1950-2020). To account for potential endogeneity between education or material conditions across waves, we implement a structural equation model for the analysis of longitudinal panel data. We fail to find a significant effect of material conditions (either positive or negative) on changes in religious affiliation in Chiapas. However, we find effect heterogeneity of education on religious change driven by its interaction with distance to urban centers. These findings are consistent with previous cross-national studies on religious conversion.