How Initial Accommodation Shapes Refugee Integration: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Ukrainian Displacement Crisis in Denmark

Sudden displacement crises require rapid expansion of refugee accommodation, yet little is known about how different types of initial housing affect integration outcomes. Exploiting linked administrative registers covering the full population of Ukrainian refugees arriving in Denmark in Spring 2022 and a representative survey, we classify each refugee’s initial accommodation from address and co-residence records and track outcomes for 18 months. The majority of arrivals during the peak were absorbed in pop-up shelters (36%) and private hosting (43%). These scalable alternatives to the inelastic supply of conventional refugee housing proved durable, with mean stays of about seven months. Moreover, by leveraging quasi-random assignment generated by within-municipality capacity and time constraints, we estimate effects of accommodation type while conditioning on locality, arrival timing, and sociodemographics. Relative to conventional public housing, private hosting led to higher early employment, higher earnings, persistently lower public-transfer receipt, and improved psychological well-being. Pop-up housing performed at least as well on labor-market outcomes and showed modest gains in social integration. By holding locality constant, we show that how refugees are housed within municipalities has an independent, first-order effect on integration—distinct from the well-studied importance of where they are placed. These findings highlight the potential for civic-led accommodation to complement public systems during displacement shocks and shape long-term refugee trajectories.