The Arab Spring as the End of a Long Electoral Cycle of Aging Authoritarian Regimes

This article interprets the Arab Spring as the terminal phase of a long electoral cycle, introduced in the article as an analytical concept capturing the long-term dynamics of authoritarian regimes in the region. In contrast to dominant socio-economic and diffusion-based explanations, the analysis foregrounds the temporal dimension of political instability and the phenomenon of regime aging. It demonstrates that by 2010–2011 a substantial share of Arab autocracies had simultaneously entered a phase of legitimational exhaustion, coinciding with electoral and quasi-electoral points of vulnerability, including elections, constitutional amendments, and succession crises. From this perspective, the Arab Spring is understood as the outcome of the synchronization of these processes rather than as a series of isolated national crises.