Socio Technical Imaginaries of the Future among AI Pioneers (2005 – 2025)

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is widely regarded as one of today’s most transformative technologies. As for each of its predecessors, such as the TV and smartphones, the rapid expansion of AI into everyday life is followed by fears, hopes, and ambivalent expectations. These so-called “socio-technical” imaginaries are especially studied among AI users and regulators, but little is known about its pioneers, such as AI founders and developers. This is particularly important in the current moment of fast technological developments—by understanding how AI pioneers imagine the future we can better understand, discuss, and regulate the envisioned directions of such systems. This article fills this gap by first compiling a dataset with nominees of the TIME 100 / AI lists, their TED talks, podcast interviews, and socio-demographic characteristics (e.g., gender, race, education). It next leverages computational methods (i.e., word embeddings, topic modeling, and sentiment analysis) and regression analysis to explore the prevalence, topical distribution, temporal developments, emotional engagement, and socio-demographic differences in socio-technical imaginaries of AI among its pioneers. Results reveal a dominant tone of optimism and anticipation centered on business and industrial progress, alongside ambivalent positions emphasizing ethical and existential concerns. Socio-demographic patterns further suggest the unequal segmentation of such profiles, as marginalized groups (e.g., women, lower-educated, and Black or Brown pioneers) voiced more critical and cautious perspectives, while White and Asian men with advanced degrees expressed more techno-optimistic visions of the future.